November 24, 2025 11:45 AM IST
First published on: Nov 24, 2025 at 07:18 AM IST
More than 30 years ago, Ukraine was coerced into relinquishing what was then the world’s third-largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. It was seen as the right thing to do. Maintaining an independent nuclear programme would have been expensive, and by dismantling its missiles and silos, Kyiv strengthened the global non-proliferation regime. That decision, however, rested on security assurances from the international community — including the West and Russia — under what became known as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
Russia has violated that agreement twice, in 2014 and 2022. But the West, too, has failed to uphold the guarantees it pledged at Budapest. It chose to treat the Memorandum merely as a set of political assurances, and Vladimir Putin calculated that the West lacked the will to defend Ukraine militarily. That gamble paid off. Nearly four years into Russia’s invasion, Ukraine again confronts the familiar sting of abandonment, as Donald Trump advances a plan that would, in effect, deliver the Kremlin a victory.
The 28-point plan betrays Ukraine on three counts. The first concerns territory, stating that Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the US. This is a direct violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and fulfils one of Putin’s earliest demands that the Donbas should be ceded to Russia because it is supposedly “Russian land” in need of “liberation”.
The second concerns Ukraine’s autonomy. Point 7 essentially states that Ukraine can never join NATO and that NATO can never accept Ukraine. This is another central Russian demand. Under international law, every sovereign state has the right to determine its own security arrangements. Even if Ukraine were to choose neutrality, neutrality imposed through coercion is no neutrality at all. NATO’s founding principles affirm that any European democracy may apply for membership if it meets the criteria. Declaring Ukraine permanently ineligible, even for the sake of “peace”, violates that principle.
The third betrayal lies in Ukraine’s exclusion from the process. Trump’s plan did not involve Kyiv — or even Europe — as the talks were held between the US and Russia. So, just as Ukraine was not an equal partner in drafting the Budapest Memorandum, it has again been relegated to the sidelines while a superpower and a great power decide its fate.
Should Trump’s plan become the foundation of “peace”, not only will it be a victory for Russia, it will also mark a defeat for the international order. It would signal that smaller nations remain vulnerable to great-power competition. The precedent it sets is dangerous: That a great power can commit aggression, secure gains, and look legitimate simply by pledging not to invade again.
The only way to deter Putin is to make aggression costly. Trump could have done that by tightening sanctions, accelerating weapons and assistance to Ukraine, and committing to stand by Volodymyr Zelenskyy. His plan does the opposite — and, in the process, makes the world a more dangerous place.
The writer is deputy copy editor, The Indian Express. saptarishi.basak@expressindia.com
