Is the post July IPO-surge a hype or market expansion?

The Indian stock market with weak dollar returns has had 90 mainboard IPOs in 2025 so far. The momentum of this number, has, however been staggered.

Six companies listed in January 2025 and by March 2025, it was all down to no listings. This number picked up to hit 13 deals in July 2025 alone and has hence sustained the momentum, according to calculations based on data from Prime Database.

According to the analysis, the median size of an IPO was ₹775 crore in between January 2025 and July 2025. This reduced to ₹700 crore between July and November 14.

The increasing number of IPOs without a major change in median size can be attributed to larger number of smaller IPOs signalling that the market is broadening , said Prasahnt Rao, head of Equity Capital Markets at Anand Rathi Investment Banking.

The increase in the number of IPOs in the second part of the calendar year is a general trend and is in response to market sentiments said Dhananjay Sinha, who heads Institutional Research at Systematix Group.

While this is true, the increase post July came on top of many small IPOs, with a size as low as ₹200 crore. This means that a market that was drying up in March 2025, was resuscitated by a large number of small IPOs getting the field ready for high profile IPOs like LG and Tata Capital to list. Both the IPOs were more than ₹10,000 crore in size each. Without accounting for Tata and LG, the average issue size in October 2025, dips to about ₹1,500 crore from ₹4,518 crore.

Optimistic sentiments created

The change in sentiment in the second half of the calendar year has more than just markets turning favourable. Mr. Rao and Mr. Sinha said that companies cluster their IPOs around a specific period to influence sentiments. “High-profile IPOs create fear of missing out among investors. Media coverage and institutional participation further amplify these effects” Mr. Rao said.

Further, Mr. Sinha added that besides market participants like mutual fund houses and investment bankers, finfluencers too influence the retail investor decisions by promoting IPO stocks and creating a “hype.”

Such IPOs that are vigorously promoted may not necessarily translate into returns for retail investors. Returns of six of the top ten IPOs in second half of CY2024, including names like Hyundai Motors and Ola Electric, declined as low as 33% after a year of trading.

Buyer-beware market

Pranav Haldea, MD of Prime Database felt that this is an unfair comparison and that all stocks that list need not list at a premium. A full subscription means that people think there is value in that investment, Mr.Haldea said. “I don’t know why we single out IPOs for this, but, , any single investment that you make in your life, it’s ultimately done on the basis of the principle of buyers beware,” he said.

He further said that investment bankers would do what they can to ensure successful subscription. “They can’t turn the sentiments for sure, but, they would like to get an optimal IPO listing,” he said and further saying that thy would not indulge in anything that would hit their reputation as bankers would have to face the same market.

While it is in the interest of multiple stakeholders to optimise the gains, the ultimate owners of the stocks, are going to be retail investors. Chief Economic Advisor C. Anantha Nageswaran at an event recently flagged that IPOs have now become an “exit vehicle” for early investors.

The trend becomes important at the backdrop of FPIs selling nearly ₹1.5 lakh crore in Indian equities in the primary market, The retail investors and DIIs through mutual funds are keeping the show alive. Going by the IPO rush since July it clearly indicates that the merchant bankers have resorted to keeping sentiments positive through trophy (large sized) IPOs so that the retail investors can be kept from moving away.