January 6, 2026 01:52 PM IST
First published on: Jan 6, 2026 at 06:11 AM IST
The New Year began with two seemingly contradictory happenings across the Atlantic. The first was the inauguration of Zohran Mamdani, a wonderful testament to America’s exceptionalism, giving the world a reason to celebrate the US. A day later came the news of the forced removal and transfer to the US of the sitting President of a big Latin American country, Venezuela. This was also exceptionalism, but one that raised concerns not only in the US’s now-claimed hegemonic domain of the Western hemisphere (read Americas), but globally as well.
The global rules-based order (read also the UN) rests on the US being its guarantor. The action in Venezuela clearly contravenes that. There are also questions being raised about its legality in US law, including the fact that a coequal branch of the country’s government, Congress, was kept in the dark. What, then, prompted President Donald Trump to undertake this action?
The avowed reason is President Nicolás Maduro’s involvement in the narcotics trade and his indictment in this matter in a US court. But this doesn’t really add up as Venezuela, by all accounts, is a bit player in drugs getting into the US. The reasoning of restoring democracy and Maduro having “stolen” the 2024 election also doesn’t add up. Indeed, Trump said that the Venezuelan opposition leader and recent Nobel Prize recipient, María Corina Machado, didn’t have “respect and support” in her country. Trump has also said that the “US will run Venezuela” — a deal with Maduro’s deputy, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, seems to be on the US anvil.
The issues with Venezuela are more than a decade old. So why did Trump do what he did now? The obvious reason is oil. The US President is a follower of the old dictum that what’s good for ExxonMobil is good for America. He also said that US oil companies will move into Venezuela and repair its crumbling oil infrastructure.
The US today is the largest oil producer in the world, but a lot of it comes from fracking, which produces light crude. The old refineries, especially in and around Texas, need heavy crude that used to come from Venezuela, Russia and Canada. Sanctions over the years have reduced Venezuela from a major oil producer to a minnow, but it remains the custodian of the largest oil reserves in the world, apart from gold, coal and other resources. The third-largest oil company in the US, CITGO, is also Venezuelan-owned.
Why didn’t Trump act in his first term? Trump 1.0 was an accidental presidency where institutionalists, many with a military background, held sway. Breaking away from Pax Americana was not their way. Trump 2.0 has no such guardrails. Ideological and financial (including personal) reasons underpin actions. Then there is legacy — Trump would like to be remembered as a consequential president who extended the US’s hegemonic power.
US domestic reasons also matter — more oil on the market can lower gas prices at the pump. Trump also wants to rebuild support among Latinos in the US, which had started wavering following ICE actions, and firm up the MAGA base, which, too, has been strained following the Jeffrey Epstein revelations and repeal of Obamacare.
The writer is former ambassador of India to the EU and Nepal
