Slower growth in key trading partners, tariff-induced disruptions and volatility in capital flows could intermittently weigh on exports and investor sentiment, the survey said.
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Ongoing negotiations for a trade agreement with the U.S. are expected to conclude during the year, a development that could help reduce uncertainty on the external front, according to Economic Survey 2025-26.
Read | Economic Survey 2025-26 LIVE updates
For India, it said, the global conditions translate into external uncertainties rather than immediate macroeconomic stress.
Slower growth in key trading partners, tariff-induced disruptions to trade and volatility in capital flows could intermittently weigh on exports and investor sentiment, the survey said.
“At the same time, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States are expected to conclude during the year, which could help reduce uncertainty on the external front,” it said.
India and the U.S. are negotiating a bilateral trade agreement since March last year. So far, six rounds of negotiations have been held. Talks are going slow as the Trump administration has imposed a steep 50% tariffs on Indian goods from August last year.
A delegation from the office of the U.S. Trade Representative, led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Rick Switzer, was in New Delhi in December 2025 for trade talks.
The visit of U.S. officials mark their second trip since the imposition of a 25% tariff and an additional 25% penalty on Indian goods entering the American market due to the purchase of Russian crude oil.
Published – January 29, 2026 12:52 pm IST
