NEW DELHI: The India-US trade deal allows both sides to get the relationship back on to an even keel but whether it can lead to long-term stability in ties remains open to question.The importance of the agreement, even if conditional, cannot be overstated of course as it allows India and the US to avert an immediate crisis. India just managed to rid itself of an albatross around its neck that was threatening to smother cooperation with its most important strategic partner even in other areas.
However, the estrangement with the US since Donald Trump’s return to the White House has not been about trade alone. There are several other friction points that retain the potential to throw the relationship out of kilter. First of course is the India-Pakistan re-hyphenation that Trump has brought upon India through his courting of Rawalpindi. It is here that US ambassador to India Sergio Gor, who seems to have found a way out of the trade impasse within weeks of his arrival, might again have an important role to play. Suspense still looms over his dual role as Trump’s special envoy for South Asia and any false move bracketing India with Pakistan, let alone playing the sheriff, will be met with resistance. Bilateralism has been the leitmotiv of India’s Pakistan policy and, as far as India is concerned, there’s no Nobel peace prize for any third party to win here. Second is the concern related to the US commitment to the Indo-Pacific under Trump, who wants to engage his counterpart Xi Jinping for a “stable peace, fair trade and respectful relations”. Trade differences between India and the US were seen as blocking any forward movement by Quad and a US-India reset must surely clear the ground for a summit meeting, with Trump visiting India. An informal get-together of the ministers from Quad nations on the margins of the critical minerals meeting in the US this week could perhaps help revitalize the mechanism but none had been proposed till Monday. While the US 2026 National Defense Strategy underlines the goal of a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific that allows “decent peace”, it makes no mention of Quad or even India.Thirdly, India’s strategic autonomy will likely continue to act as a limiting factor that both countries will need to work around. India will continue to use the same to navigate geopolitical complexities, especially in its relations with countries like the US, Russia and China. India may have, according to Trump, promised to stop buying Russian oil but it will continue to work closely with Moscow in defence and in multilateral forums like the SCO and BRICS, knowing fully well that Russia leaning closer to China and Pakistan will be detrimental to India’s interests. India would like Russia to see its energy pivot as a blip caused by market conditions, not as an ebbing of its strategic autonomy, and an early Modi-Putin phone call to avoid any wrong signalling is not ruled out.For India, the structural shift in how the US handles the H-1B visa programme remains a major irritant that it hopes Washington will address. The crisis seems to have reached a tipping point with the US having done away with the lottery system, introduced a $ 100,000 fee and now the stamping problem preventing the return of thousands of professionals to the US.Finally, India will also be concerned about the more transactional model of the relationship that the US under Trump seeks with India. Many of the claims made by Trump in his trade deal announcement – India saying no to Russian oil, agreeing to buy energy and other products worth $ 500 billion from the US, zero tariff on American products – have not yet been officially confirmed by the Indian government, suggesting there might be a devil in the details. India will hope that some of Trump’s claims are just political signalling, not an ultimatum for a return of volatility to ties should India fail to meet the demands put forth.
