(As Kerala gears up for the Assembly polls, every week, Shaju Philip decodes the electoral trends, political signals, and campaign moves shaping the contest.)
The Christian community in Kerala is set to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the elections to the 140-member state Assembly slated for April.
The community’s long-standing bonds with the principal Opposition Congress seem to have frayed, altering traditional political equations in the state. Large-scale migration has reshaped the demographic profile of the Christian vote bank, adding uncertainty to electoral calculations. The BJP has also stepped up its calibrated outreach in a bid to claim a share of Christian votes.
The direction of Christian votes in central Kerala, where various Christian denominations are numerically influential, will be crucial to the Congress-led UDF’s chances of a return to power.
Christians may tilt the outcome in about 40 Assembly constituencies spread across central Kerala districts of Ernakulam, Idukki, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha and Kottayam. Besides, the community also has presence in hilly regions of North Kerala seats like Thiruvambady, Irikkur and Peravur, which used to be traditional UDF strongholds. As per 2011 Census, Christians make up 18.38% of Kerala’s population.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, the UDF suffered a setback in the central region, where with the help of a faction of regional Christian party Kerala Congress, the ruling CPI(M)-led LDF wrested several traditional Congress seats.
In northern Kerala, the Congress’s ally Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) commands significant influence across several constituencies.
The Christian community – which once accounted for stalwarts like A K Antony, Oommen Chandy and K M Mani, who had been involved in shaping the state’s political landscape for decades – appears to be grappling with a leadership vacuum on the political front, with barely any leaders with stature and influence emerging from it now.
To project its Christian face, the Congress had last year named three-term legislator Sunny Joseph as its state unit chief.
The Congress’s predicament with regard to the Christian vote bank has only sharpened the growing clout of the IUML within the UDF, threatening to further distance the community from the Congress. After the UDF’s defeat in 2021, the IUML leadership had engaged with the Christian clergy across Kerala to resolve any differences.
There seems to be a concern among Christians that the Congress tends to side with the numerically stronger Muslims on minority issues. The upcoming Assembly elections may prove if the old political bonhomie between these communities is restored in favour of the Congress or whether their faultlines would dent the grand old party’s prospects.
The massive out-migration of Christian youths, mainly from the central Kerala, have had a two-pronged political impact. In many constituencies, the Christian vote bank has declined, which could upset the calculations of the parties that rely on the community’s social presence.
The migration factor is said to have stoked concerns among a section of Christians against Muslims in Kerala over international issues like the Palestine-Israel conflict or clashes between ethnic groups in some African countries. The pro-BJP Christian Association and Alliance for Social Action (CASA), which is active on social media, has been accused of fuelling this divide.
The regional Kerala Congress, which once enjoyed significant political influence among Christians, disintegrated over the years, struggling to project
a face capable of leading it into an electoral battle. After the death of party founder K M Mani in 2019, the regional Christian party’s bargaining power eroded considerably. The splinter Christian outfits, which have their alignments across the LDF and the UDF, do not seem to have any prospects in the upcoming polls.
The Catholic Church, the most influential Christian segment in Kerala, has stepped in to play its role. The Church has recently reactivated its laymen association Catholic Congress by inducting new leaders, which has been raising issues concerning the community. With a grassroots level network across all Catholic parishes, this organisation has now assumed the role of a key player for the community. Last month, the Church had issued a circular asking devotees to become active in politics and public life so the community does not fall off the political radar.
The BJP has intensified its Christian outreach, against the backdrop of shifting loyalties and structural changes within the community. The party has been taking calculated steps to reach out to the Christian voters.
The BJP has promoted its several Christian leaders after Rajeev Chandrasekhar took over as the state party president. One of the poll slogans of the BJP, “surakshitha (secure) Keralam”, is centred around the alleged threat posed by Islamic extremism. By linking it to the scenario of the UDF’s return to power, the BJP hopes to secure a chunk of the Christian vote. However, the party’s Christian outreach failed to yield results in the recent local body elections, which saw the defeat of its several Christian candidates.
