Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis on Saturday launched ballistic missiles at Israel, their first such attack since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28.
The group said it targeted “sensitive Israeli military sites” after Israel said that it had intercepted a missile from Yemen.
Over the course of four weeks, Iran has escalated the war to Washington’s Gulf Arab allies and closed down the Strait of Hormuz, setting off the world’s worst energy shock.
Israel, meanwhile, has invaded southern Lebanon and is fighting on the ground with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group for at least three weeks.
Iran’s Houthi allies, however, have held back so far. Their effective entry into the war not only risks widening the already expanding conflict but turns the focus to another critical maritime chokepoint — the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the mouth of the Red Sea, a region where they had triggered a massive commercial shipping disruption beginning late 2023.
Who are the Houthis? How did they disrupt shipping earlier? What effect could their actions have in a world already reeling from an energy supply disruption? And what’s at stake for India? We explain.
Who are the Houthis?
The Houthis are an armed political and religious group which champions Yemen’s Shia Muslim minority, the Zaidis.
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They are a part of Iran’s network of allies across West Asia — also called the “axis of resistance” — along with groups such as Gaza’s Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Israel, however, has largely eroded the capabilities of the latter two, perhaps leaving the Houthis as Iran’s strongest regional allies right now.
Founded in the 1990s by Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, the movement has long had an interest in fighting the US (which supported Saudi Arabia in its war against the Tehran-backed group) and Israel.
Its slogan, orsarkha,is unambiguous: “God is great, death to America, death to Israel, curse on the Jews, victory to Islam.”
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In 2014, the Houthis seized Sana’a, the capital of the civil war-torn Yemen, and overthrew new president Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. They have since broadly tilted the local balance of power in their favour.
How did the Houthis disrupt Red Sea shipping in 2023?
Following the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack by Hamas, and as Israel began its war on Gaza, the Houthis declared support for Gaza and set their main goal as stopping Israel and deterring the US.
The group mounted a missile-and-drone campaign against Israel, before shifting their attacks to the shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea by late 2023.
Yemen is located close to the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait, which leads into the Red Sea. At the other end of the 2,000-km Red Sea are the Suez Canal, a critical waterway which connects it to the Mediterranean Sea, and the SUMED pipeline.
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According to the US Energy Information Administration, these are all strategic routes for Persian Gulf oil and natural gas shipments to Europe and North America. Total oil shipments via these routes accounted for about 12% of total seaborne-traded oil in the first half of 2023, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments accounted for about 8% of worldwide LNG trade, it said.
Source: US Energy Energy Information Administration
The Suez Canal handled approximately 12% to 15% of global trade in 2023, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development.
But in just the first two months after the Houthis began attacking ships transiting the Red Sea route in December 2023, the trade volume going through the Suez Canal decreased by more than 40%.
The attacks forced vessels to go all the way around the Cape of Good Hope (at the southern tip of Africa) and drove up the cost of insurance premiums for those that continued to sail through the Bab-el-Mandeb.
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The disruption persisted throughout 2024 and much of 2025, with shipping through these zones reducing to a trickle.
In 2025, US President Donald Trump launched a bombing campaign alongside the UK to prevent these attacks. The weeks-long mission struck thousands of targets, and killed a number of high ranking Houthi officials, but ultimately ended in a negotiated ceasefire.
Since the beginning of this year, shipping again began to resume through the Red Sea route. Shipping giant Maersk announced on January 15 that it had decided to restart services through the trans-Suez route.
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“The route through the Suez, the Red Sea, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the fastest, most sustainable and most efficient way to serve customers with transport between Asia and Europe,” Maersk said.
What effect could another shipping disruption have on India and the world?
For weeks now, the Houthi movement in Yemen has been voicing support for Iran — its greatest provider of military, financial and political support — saying their participation in the war was only a matter of time.
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The Houthis have said their operations would continue until the “aggression” on all fronts ended.
If the Houthis do remain in the conflict, as they have warned, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, effectively the link between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, could see yet another prolonged disruption.
Such an action may worsen the effects of the Strait of Hormuz disruption that has already driven up oil prices and demand.
Suez Canal connects the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, reducing the distance it took to travel from Europe to Asia via the South African coast route. (Express graphic, data via Reuters)
A disruption in maritime transport is a crucial concern for the world economy. More than 80% of the global goods trade volume is carried by sea. The share of trade via sea is much higher for developing countries such as India.
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While the Strait of Hormuz is critical for India’s energy imports, the Red Sea route is vital for its exports, particularly to Europe.
Nearly 80% of India’s merchandise trade with Europe passes through this corridor. The European Union alone accounts for over 15% of India’s total goods exports, valued at around $450 billion annually.
After nearly two years of disruption, shipping traffic through the Red Sea had just begun to recover beginning this year.
But the threat of fresh attacks will once again push global shipping lines to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope — a detour that adds 4,000 to 6,000 nautical miles and delays journeys by 14 to 20 days. These longer routes have sharply higher freight costs, disproportionately affecting developing economies like India.
Unlike advanced economies, which can absorb higher costs or shift to air freight, developing countries remain heavily dependent on shipping due to its lower cost. Earlier in 2024, the disruption hit low-value, high-volume exports such as Indian agriculture and textiles the hardest.
