5 min readMar 1, 2026 10:52 AM IST
First published on: Mar 1, 2026 at 10:52 AM IST
The world is entering a state of anarchy in which a hegemon can attack a weaker state with impunity. Forces resisting such conduct are weak, disunited, and rhetorical at best. Neither domestic constraints nor international rules appear to deter such behaviour. The case of the Israeli invasion of Gaza, the US’s capture of President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and now, a strike on Iran and the reported death of its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, support this assumption.
In a flagrant violation of all international rules and norms, the US and Israel launched a joint military strike called “Epic Fury” on Iran. Several Iranian military, energy, and political institutions have been targeted. According to the latest reports, Khamenei has been killed. In a retaliatory move, Iran launched strikes on US military bases in West Asia and on Israel. The exact number of deaths and the level of destruction are not known, but the casualties are likely to be high from both sides. Explosions were reported in the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait, indicating that the conflict will have larger regional implications.
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are working on an ambitious goal of regime change in Iran. Trump minced no words when he stated that the US had launched a major combat operation and called for regime change. He wants to topple Khamenei’s regime. With the death of the Supreme Leader, the US strategy would be to eliminate the top Iranian political and military leadership and incite protesters to take over the regime. However, this strategy is likely to flop because no regime in history has ever changed just with aerial bombardment. Americans are averse to sending troops on the ground, and without troops on the ground, regime change may not be possible.
The current Iranian regime is well-entrenched, and it is unlikely to go down without a fierce fight. It has a strong military and has been preparing for the war for quite some time. While it is true that anti-Khamenei regime sentiment is quite strong and pervasive in Iran, that does not amount to supporting a puppet American regime superimposed on Tehran. With a civilisational history, culture and pride in strategic autonomy, the Iranian people are averse to foreign interventions in domestic affairs. However, there are some rebel groups and disgruntled minorities which would be employed by the Trump administration in its fight against the existing regime. Reza Pahlavi, a scion of the Pahlavi dynasty and the eldest son of the last shah of Iran, is another claimant to power in Iran.
A lot will depend on the way things unfold in the coming days. The first and foremost concern is the survival of the regime following the death of Khamenei. Anticipating his possible death, Khamenei had appointed Ali Larijani as a de facto leader, bypassing President Masoud Pezeshkian. How far the current regime can endure the assault from outside and conspiracies from inside remains to be seen.
The second issue is the ability of Iran to target American and Israeli military installations. Iran has a well-developed missile system and drones. Its military capability is certainly no match to the American war machine and Israeli military, but it can do enough damage to thwart their designs. Iran has attacked several US military targets in West Asia. If it succeeds in causing credible damage to the American military, the war will take a completely different turn. The US will be caught in another Middle Eastern trap, from which Trump cannot easily retreat.
The present crisis, if not easily contained, will create a nightmare for Indian diplomacy. The priority should be to ensure the security of the Indian diaspora in West Asia. Over nine million people, that is, a little less than the population of Israel, live in different parts of West Asia. They are one of the biggest sources of remittances to India. Many of them will have to be repatriated if the conflict takes a wider regional dimension. Second, the price of oil is likely to increase soon. Crude oil price, hovering at $70 per barrel at present, will go further up, creating a huge financial burden for India. Third, as witnessed in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria, the policy of regime change has rarely succeeded in the region. Instead, it has contributed to radicalisation, fundamentalism and terrorism. New Delhi will have to work on several fronts and develop a robust strategy to deal with the evolving crisis in the region.
The writer is professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
