With National Capital continuing to reel under a thick blanket of smog, and the BJP dispensation blaming Punjab’s stubble burning — especially on the Diwali night — for Delhi’s ‘very poor’ air quality, here’s a reality check.
Punjab has recorded 484 farm fires till Wednesday (October 22) this year, a sharp 69% drop over last year’s figure of 1,581 and 73% drop over 1,794 fires recorded in 2023 during the same period.
Punjab Pollution Control Board (PPCB) data also shows a significant year-on-year drop in stubble burning incidents on Diwali night: This year, the state recorded 45 farm fires on Diwali night — the least in last five years. A total of 5,327 farm fires were reported on Diwali night of 2021 (November 4); 181 fires in 2022 (October 25), 987 in 2023 (November 12), and 587 in 2024 (October 31).
These numbers notwithstanding, the Delhi government continues to blame Punjab, its AAP dispensation and the party’s national convenor Arvind Kejriwal for the bad air in national capital.
Delhi’s Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa, Wednesday said, “Arvind Kejriwal has not only ruined Delhi but also Punjab. The air of Punjab is polluted now. Punjab once had very clean and fresh air, but its air has deteriorated. If we can clean Delhi’s pollution, then why can’t Punjab — which was already clean — be kept that way?”
Sirsa had earlier alleged that AQI levels in several Punjab cities, including Jalandhar, Kapurthala, Amritsar, Ludhiana, have soared to dangerous levels, ranging between 500 and over 1100.
However, data from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), which operates independently of state bodies, tells a different story. According to official figures, Punjab’s AQI before Diwali was hovering around 150 (moderate), and on Diwali night — traditionally one of the worst days for air quality due to combined firecracker emissions and stubble burning — the border state’s average AQI stood at 206, categorised as ‘poor’. While slightly above the ‘moderate’ range (101–200), it remains far from the ‘severe’ levels alleged by Sirsa.
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PPCB officials have strongly refuted the Delhi minister’s claims. “Punjab’s AQI has never, at any point, crossed 500,” a senior PPCB official stated. “We are not sure what data is being cited by the Delhi government, but it certainly doesn’t match the records of CPCB or our own monitoring.”
Moreover, experts and state officials also questioned the plausibility of stubble smoke traveling over 400 kilometres to Delhi from Punjab. “If stubble burning in Punjab is the main reason for Delhi’s pollution, then logically, cities like Ludhiana and Amritsar should have worse AQI than Delhi. But that is clearly not the case,” said a senior PPCB scientist.
Environmental experts also point to Delhi’s own local sources — vehicular emissions, construction dust, industrial pollution, and firecracker usage — as significant contributors to its poor air quality.
“Earlier, AAP was in power in Delhi and used to blame Punjab, then ruled by other parties. Now, BJP is in power in Delhi and AAP is ruling Punjab. BJP is targeting AAP on similar lines,” said a senior PPCB official.
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“Every winter, stubble burning in Punjab is widely blamed for Delhi’s toxic air, with data showing AQI levels in the capital spiking to ‘very poor’ and ‘severe’ ,” said a senior PPCB officer. He added that a former judge of the National Green Tribunal (NGT), during a seminar, had raised serious doubts about the widely held belief that stubble burning in Punjab is a major cause of Delhi’s air pollution.
Judge Sudhir Agarwal questioned the scientific validity of the claim, pointing out that Punjab is not geographically adjacent to Delhi, and the national capital shares its borders with Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, not Punjab.
Judge Agarwal highlighted the lack of consistent wind patterns necessary to carry smoke from Punjab to Delhi. He noted that Delhi’s pollution contains more oil-based particles, which is inconsistent with Punjab’s dry stubble smoke, and asked why, if winds shift, the smoke doesn’t travel towards Pakistan instead. He stressed that while Punjab’s stubble burning might have local environmental impacts, it’s unfair to entirely blame state’s farmers without robust scientific evidence.
PPCB officials said that Punjab historically has accounted for a large share of stubble fires in North India. For example, in certain years, it was more than 70% of all farm-fire incidents. But now, the things have changed, and Punjab witnessed a huge decline — from 76,582 farm fires in 2020 to 10,909 in 2024 — showing a massive 85.7% reduction over five years.
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“It is common to hear that Punjab’s stubble burning is a major culprit behind Delhi’s annual smog episode. But this narrative is incomplete because even when stubble fires are low or zero, Delhi’s AQI remains poor. Also, meteorology plays a huge role: during winters, wind speeds drop, inversion layers form, pollutants accumulate locally—therefore, even without external inputs, the air can turn toxic,” said PPCB officials, adding that Punjab’s own air quality has not reached the extreme ‘very poor’ levels on a sustained basis that Delhi often experiences.
Meanwhile, some experts said that farm fires in Punjab need to be curtailed in the coming weeks when wheat sowing begins, and farmers may rush to clear their paddy fields. According to the PPCB data, the total area under paddy cultivation in Punjab this year is 31.72 lakh hectares. Till October 21, 32.84 per cent of the land was harvested. In Tarn Taran, 67.95 per cent of the area under paddy cultivation has been harvested. In Amritsar, the figure stands at 70 per cent. These two districts have reported the majority of the farm fires.
According to the PPCB, fines worth Rs 9.4 lakh in the form of environmental compensation have so far been imposed in 189 cases of stubble burning and an amount of Rs 6.25 lakh has been recovered. Additionally, 170 FIRs, including 61 in Tarn Taran and 50 in Amritsar, have been registered over stubble-burning incidents. The cases have been registered under section 223 (disobedience of orders promulgated by a public servant) of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS).
Punjab Agriculture Minister Gurmit Singh Khuddian said that they have tried their best to keep the stubble burning as low as possible this season and are continuing their efforts till the end of the harvesting season
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According to an official statement, complying with the directions of the Supreme Court and the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) to bring down stubble-burning cases to zero, Director General of Police (DGP) Gaurav Yadav and Special DGP (Law and Order) Arpit Shukla have been personally monitoring the action against farm fires.
