As the ruling BJP in Assam seeks a third consecutive term, the party is banking on tried-and-tested faces to see off the challenge from the Congress-led Opposition.
In the April 9 state Assembly elections, the BJP has renominated 37 sitting MLAs and dropped 21 winning candidates from the 2021 polls, relying on entirely new faces in 37 of the 90 constituencies it is contesting in an alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). The BJP currently has 67 MLAs, with allies AGP and BPF at 10 and 3, respectively, in the 126-member Assembly.
In 2023, between the 2021 and 2026 Assembly polls, Assam underwent a delimitation exercise that redrew boundaries and renamed several seats. As many as six constituencies were created by merging existing seats, while at least 15 seats were carved out of other constituencies. For this analysis of candidates in the 2026 seat configuration, geographically analogous seats from 2021 have been used.
Among the 90 seats the BJP is contesting this time, down from 93 in 2021, are 14 seats that had been contested by its allies five years ago. However, there are another 14 seats that the BJP had contested in 2021 but has ceded to its partners this time.
The BJP has opted to field 6 candidates who had lost in the 2021 polls. It has replaced 16 candidates who had contested and lost in the previous polls. The party is also contesting 5 seats this time that its allies had won in 2021.
Among the 21 sitting BJP MLAs who have been axed, 16 have not been renominated despite winning in 2021 with a vote share exceeding 50%.
Among the 16 losing candidates from 2021 that the BJP has replaced this time, 14 had finished as the runners-up in 2021, while 2 had come third. On an average, these candidates had then lost their seats by 25,000 votes.
However, the 6 candidates who lost in 2021 but have been given tickets again had lost by an average of 16,000 votes, including a margin of just 683 votes in the Nazira constituency.
Notably, the BJP is fielding no Muslim candidates this year, down from 9 Muslims it had fielded in 2021. Of the 9 seats where the BJP had fielded a Muslim candidate, the party is only contesting 3 this time, where it has fielded non-Muslim candidates. Only 1 Muslim candidate from the BJP had won in 2021 – Numal Momin in Bokajan, who has been dropped by the party. He is considering running as an Independent.
[BJP vs Congress on candidate selection]
Congress nominees
The Congress, which currently has 20 MLAs in Assam, is contesting 98 seats this time in an alliance with the Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, All Party Hill Leaders Conference, and the Left. In 2021, the Congress had allied with the BPF, which is now a BJP partner.
Assam Congress chief and the party’s candidate from Jorhat constituency Gaurav Gogoi greeting supporters during his nomination rally ahead of the Assam Assembly elections. (PTI Photo)
Among the 98 seats the Congress is contesting this year, up from 95 in 2021, are 21 that its allies had contested in the previous election. However, there are 19 seats that the Congress had contested in 2021, but has now ceded to its allies.
With its limited pool of sitting legislators, the Congress has re-fielded just 9 of its current MLAs and dropped as many as 15. The party has, however, opted to renominate 16 candidates who had lost in 2021. The Congress is also contesting 21 seats that it had left to its allies in 2021, including 13 where former allies All India United Democratic Front and BPF had won.
In total, the Congress has fielded 52 new faces, including by shifting some candidates who had lost in 2021 to new seats. Among these seats are 37 where the Congress has replaced its losing candidate from 2021 – these candidates had lost by an average margin of 31,300 votes. The party is also contesting 8 seats that its allies had lost in 2021.
Among the sitting Congress MLAs who have been dropped are 10 who had won in 2021 by securing more than 50% of the vote share. However, the 16 losing candidates from 2021 that it has opted to field again this time had lost by an average margin of 19,500 votes.
The Congress has fielded 18 Muslim candidates this time. In 2021, of its 19 Muslim candidates, 16 had emerged as the winners though the Congress is not contesting 4 of these seats this time and has replaced 8 of these winners for the forthcoming polls.
