NEW DELHI: In an election marked by determined consolidation of votes against the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB), the social composition of the newly elected MLAs too has changed strikingly with the share of Muslims and Yadavs hitting a low. What is just as striking : NDA now boasts more Yadav MLAs than the MGB.The decline in the M-Y block has seen a corresponding rise in MLAs belonging to other voting blocs – from non-Yadav OBCs to Extremely Backward Classes and upper castes – which is evidence of RJD’s abysmal failure to expand its support base meaningfully beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav base.
Muslims at 17.7% and Yadavs at 14.3% make up the two biggest voting groups, but they have not been able to harness their numbers due to a larger counter-consolidation of other communities since 2005 when Nitish Kumar-led NDA to its first assembly poll win. The 2015 poll when Nitish had aligned with MGB was an exception.Muslim representation in the 243-member assembly is the lowest now, with only 11 as against 19 in 2020. The number of Yadav MLAs has shrunk by almost half to 28 from 55. The number of MLAs from the most populous caste is the lowest in the post-Mandal era, which saw the community fuelling Lalu Prasad’s rise, with RJD governing Bihar from 1990 to 2005.What is equally telling is that it is not RJD but the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM that now has the most Muslim MLAs (5). RJD has 3, Congress 2, and JDU 1, with the last being the lone Muslim representative from NDA.Muslims’ preference for AIMIM, at least in seats where their numbers are decisive, convey their growing impatience with “secular” formations which, the community complains, bank on their solid support but fight shy of airing their issues or giving them proportionate representation fearing Hindu consolidation.Some opposition netas are of the view that Muslims began rallying behind AIMIM, especially in Seemanchal, after MGB named Mukesh Sahani, whose caste accounts for just around 2.6% of the population, as its deputy CM candidate. That RJD had given tickets to only 18 Muslims as against 51 Yadavs also irked Muslims, especially the young population, and a section of them broke ranks to back Owaisi.In NDA, JDU had given tickets to 4 Muslims and LJP(RV) to 1, but only one of them, Zama Khan, a minister in the outgoing govt, could win.As Yadavs appeared to consolidate behind MGB, NDA gave them fewer seats. JDU, which has traditionally fielded a decent number of Muslim candidates, also cut down from eight in 2020 to four due to a perceived lack of support over its alliance with BJP. However, the overwhelming victory of NDA has led to the unusual scenario of its having more Yadav lawmakers (15) in the assembly than MGB (12). Incidentally, the lone BSP MLA is also a Yadav.Though Muslim-Yadav representation corresponds with the fortunes of MGB, the polarisation and counter-polarisation witnessed in this election as the NDA campaign foregrounded the misrule associated with the ‘jungle raaj’ of RJD, has especially hit the two communities.
