President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India this week — his first in four years — comes in the midst of intensifying peace efforts in Ukraine. It offers Delhi an opportunity to reinvent the relationship with Russia that is much-valued but performs well below potential and is rather skewed.
Despite Delhi’s ritual celebration of Moscow as India’s “best friend forever”, the reality is less flattering. Indo-Russian ties have been reduced to a thin gruel over the years. Its narrow government-to-government interface has little traction among India’s new elites or its dynamic private sector. The Russian presence in Indian public life is a faint echo of the Soviet past. In Moscow too, India remains marginal to the Russian elites preoccupied with America, Europe, and China. If the relationship has endured, it is thanks largely to Putin’s personal commitment rather than a structural Russian interest.
Putin’s visit is a chance to break out of this drift. But reinvigoration cannot be built on the familiar menu of defence sales — S-400s and S-500s, Su-57s, or yet another nuclear reactor — nor on the short-term bonanza of discounted oil. A durable transformation requires building a substantive commercial, technological, and scientific partnership. Without an economic foundation, Delhi’s lofty rhetoric about promoting “multipolarity” with Moscow will ring hollow.
The numbers underline the challenge. India exports barely $5 billion a year to Russia (compare this with its $11 bn exports to Bangladesh). There is much room for growth. Russia is a $2.5 trillion economy. If peace breaks out and Moscow reconnects with Europe and the US, the Russian economy could see major expansion — and Ukraine will inevitably require large-scale reconstruction. India must position itself to participate in both.
That Delhi must do this while Russia remains locked in conflict with India’s principal economic partners — the US and Europe — is unfortunate. But having ignored economic ties for so long, India has little time to waste.
There are, however, reasons for cautious optimism. Nearly four years into the Ukraine war, it is evident that the West cannot defeat Russia at its own borders. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s shift from demanding a “just peace” to a “dignified peace” reflects Kyiv’s weakening hand and the inevitability of Western concessions. It is only a question of when and how much.
At the same time, pragmatic voices in Moscow recognise that a permanent confrontation with the West is unsustainable. Contrary to much of Indian commentary, Russia seeks accommodation with the collective West, wants an honourable place at the G8, and a decisive voice in shaping the European order.
A high-powered American delegation is in Moscow to push forward a peace settlement. After consultations with Zelenskyy’s advisers, President Donald Trump’s envoys — real estate mogul Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner — landed in Moscow this week to attempt a comprehensive deal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi should receive a first-hand account of these negotiations from Putin.
Delhi has every interest in a stable peace in Ukraine. The war has severely stressed India’s doctrine of multi-alignment. The idea that Delhi could maintain strong ties with all the major powers collided with Russia’s confrontation with the West and its consequences for India’s commercial ties with the US and Europe. Worse, the war tightened Russia’s dependence on China, the rising power with which India has multiple disputes. Only a Russian accommodation with the West can loosen this unfavourable external environment that India faces.
Delhi’s reluctance to condemn Russia’s invasion and its dramatic surge in oil imports triggered widespread irritation in the West. President Joe Biden resisted turning India’s Russia ties into a breaking point in the expanding US-India partnership. Trump took the opposite approach — imposing an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian exports, citing India’s large purchases of Russian oil.
It is not that Trump is more anti-Russia than Biden. On the contrary, Trump is arguably the most pro-Russian US president since World War II. While penalising India for buying Russian oil, Trump is eager to open US access to Russian hydrocarbons and minerals. American and European media reports suggest that Trump’s peace diplomacy is intertwined with ambitions to cultivate business opportunities in Russia and secure privileged access to Ukraine’s natural resources.
Europe, India’s most important partner after the US, has also been unsettled by Delhi’s stance on Ukraine. Unlike Trump, Europe has avoided punitive measures against Delhi. As India seeks deeper links with Europe, it would prefer to see peace between Europe and Russia. Putin’s visit gives Delhi an opportunity to reaffirm its support for reconciliation in the old continent.
Europe has been jolted by Trump’s commerzpolitik, awakening to a Washington more interested in cutting deals with Moscow than defending its allies. The war has ruptured the natural economic interdependence between Europe and Russia. Trump could well sideline Europe in Ukraine’seconomic development.
Europe faces two anxieties: The threat from Russia and the fear of abandonment by America. It dislikes a peace dictated by Trump and Putin. Europe’s long-term quest for strategic autonomy, then, requires both deterrence and a direct engagement with Moscow to build a new regional security architecture.
In many ways, the difficult negotiations over Ukraine open the door to a potential restructuring of relations among the US, Europe, and Russia. India must navigate this flux by strengthening ties with all three. What looked impossible in 2022 now appears plausible. But Delhi must first correct the distortion in its Russia policy. A partnership built overwhelmingly on defence and nuclear cooperation must broaden to include trade, technology, and scientific collaboration.
A quarter century ago, when Putin made his first visit to India as president in 2000, he sought to end Russia’s post-Soviet neglect of India. That opportunity wasmissed by both sides. This week offers a fresh chance for Modi and Putin to put the relationship on a stronger, more modern footing.
The writer is contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express. He is a distinguished professor at the Motwani-Jadeja Institute of American Studies, Jindal Global University, Delhi
