The upcoming H-1B visa lottery in March 2026 is shaping up to be unlike previous years as US employers are planning to adopt a more cautious and deliberate approach to fillings. As reported by Economic Times, companies are auditing job roles, offering higher base salaries before registration and cutting back on speculative applications in response to new regulatory and cost pressures. An OTP visa holder in California was recently fired after his startup declined to sponsor his H-1B visa, while a senior manager at a US retailer managed to secure a substantial raise to migrate from an L-1 visa to H-1B highlighting the widening gap between entry-level candidates and senior hires.
Regulatory changes drive restraint
The new hiked H-1B visa fee of $100,000 announced by the Donald Trump administration along with a wage-weighted selection system has forced the employers to rethink their strategies. Recruiters and immigration attorneys expect filings to drop sharply from last year’s 358,737 registrations to between 250,000–330,000 this year.
“Employers are auditing job roles, job codes, and offering salaries well before registration,” said Anshul Lodha, managing director at PageGroup India told Economic Times. “Selective salary realignment, particularly for niche or high-impact roles, meaningfully improves selection chances.”Lodha further noted that broad restricting of compensation such as educing RSUs or equity to inflate base salaries remained limited as companies balance immigration strategy with retention and internal pay equity.
Legal risks and compliance pressure
The report further highlights that immigration attorneys said the shift is not just about cost but also about regulatory risk. “What we’re seeing is strategic restraint,” said Shilpa Malik, managing attorney at VisaNation Law Group. “Employers are filing fewer registrations and treating each one as a serious business decision tied to seniority, defensible wages, and long-term retention value.”Malik also warned that misalignment between job duties and SOC codes is now one of the fastest paths to RFEs (requests for evidence) and post-approval issues. Companies are avoiding aggressive tactics like manipulating job codes or relocating roles to lower-wage hubs.
Structural flaws in wage-based selection
Divij Kishore, founding attorney at Flagship Law, cautioned that wage-weighted selection has inherent flaws. Wage levels vary by job classification and location, meaning the same salary can fall into different tiers across cities. “Tying selection odds to salary can produce outcomes that depart from the intent of the regulations,” Kishore said. “Higher pay does not always reflect greater responsibility or seniority.”He added that the $100,000 fee could redirect global talent away from the U.S., undermining its competitiveness in attracting skilled workers.
Sectoral impact
- IT outsourcing and services firms — most reliant on high-volume, lower-wage overseas hiring — are expected to face the greatest disruption.
- Large technology companies are better positioned to absorb higher wages and fees but are also becoming more selective.
- Startups and small businesses face the steepest challenges, with sponsorship costs and wage-based selection making H-1B hiring less viable.
