3 min readNew DelhiFeb 10, 2026 10:48 PM IST
India’s power sector fuel mix is projected to undergo a major shift from coal-led to renewables-led generation by 2070, according to a new NITI Aayog study ‘Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero’.
The study projects that renewable energy’s share in electricity generation could rise from around 20% in 2024-25 to over 80% by 2070 under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) — represents a level of effort that is realistically achievable based on historical trends and continuation of current policies.
In the same scenario, coal’s share in electricity generation is expected to decline sharply to 6-10% by 2070. Currently, the share of coal in the power generation mix is 74%. The study said that coal power is expected to shift from energy generation to insurance against shortages.
Nuclear power is also expected to expand significantly, with its contribution rising from about 3% at present to 5-8% under CPS by 2070. The study said this reflects the growing role of nuclear energy in displacing coal-based generation while providing carbon-free baseload power.
“Nuclear power is crucial to achieving long-term goals of power sector decarbonisation,” it said, adding that nuclear energy can provide firm low-carbon electricity, high-temperature industrial heat and reliable power supply for electrolyzers supporting green hydrogen production.
In capacity terms, nuclear power is projected to grow from the current 8.18 GW in 2025 to 90-135 GW by 2070 under CPS — an increase of 10 to 15 times. Under the more ambitious Net Zero Scenario (NZS) — an accelerated pathway aligned with India’s 2070 net-zero emissions target — nuclear capacity could reach 295-320 GW.
“The earlier and larger buildout under the NZS better matches the flexibility and reliability needs of a renewables-dominant grid,” it said.
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The study also flagged India’s continued dependence on coal-based power as a key structural challenge. It noted that expanding clean and flexible resources will require effective grid management, as the rising share of variable renewable energy is increasing intermittency risks while long-duration energy storage and nuclear capacity are yet to scale sufficiently to provide balancing support.
To address these challenges, the study suggested scaling nuclear capacity to 100 GW by 2047 and 200-300 GW by 2070, including the advanced reactors and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to deliver reliable 24×7 clean power. It proposed encouraging large industrial and captive power consumers to transition from coal-based captive plants to SMRs, enabling cleaner baseload generation.
“This shift would support national low-carbon transition goals while maximising the use of existing land, transmission connectivity, and industrial infrastructure,” it said.
It further called for accelerating the development and deployment of indigenous SMRs with private participation in industries.
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