The Middle East is facing one of its most volatile moments in decades after US President Donald Trump announced that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in a joint US-Israel strike on Tehran.In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead.” He claimed the cleric was tracked using “Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems” and described the assassination as “the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there were “many signs” that the 86-year-old leader was “no more”.Iran has not formally confirmed his death. However, senior official Ali Larijani warned that the United States and Israel would “regret their actions”, vowing an “unforgettable lesson” from Iran’s armed forces. Within hours, missiles and drones were launched at Israel and at US military bases across the Gulf.
10 things to know
How Khamenei was targeted
Strikes began around 09:30 Tehran time, with explosions reported near Khamenei’s heavily guarded Leadership House compound. Satellite imagery showed blackened buildings and debris within a kilometre of the site. Israeli officials later said the compound had been destroyed in what they described as a “powerful, surprise strike”.
Trump confirmed US participation, saying the operation aimed to eliminate “imminent threats” from the Iranian regime. The attack reportedly formed part of a months-long joint operational plan between Washington and Jerusalem. If confirmed, Khamenei’s death would mark the first killing of a sitting Iranian supreme leader and the most direct US intervention in Iran’s leadership structure since 1979.
Leadership vacuum in Tehran
Khamenei had ruled since 1989, succeeding Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Over nearly four decades, he consolidated power over the clerical establishment, judiciary and armed forces.There is no publicly confirmed successor. Constitutionally, a panel of clerics selects the next supreme leader, but analysts warn that in wartime, power could shift to a temporary council or to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The absence of a clear transition plan risks internal rivalries. With tensions at boiling point, even minor factional splits could destabilise the political system that Khamenei spent decades fortifying.
Iran’s retaliation
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had launched “Operation Truthful Promise 4”, targeting Israel and five major US facilities in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and the UAE.Missiles and Shahed drones were fired in waves. In Israel, around 150 ballistic missiles were reportedly launched. Many were intercepted, though some struck open areas. Iran described the attacks as a proportionate response to what it called an “illegal and illegitimate” act of aggression.
US bases under fire
The headquarters of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, Al Udeid airbase in Qatar and Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait were among sites reportedly targeted. US Central Command said forces had defended against “hundreds” of incoming missiles and drones.Washington reported no fatalities and only minimal damage. However, footage showed explosions near strategic installations, underlining vulnerabilities. The US has roughly 30,000–40,000 troops across about 13 bases in the region. Even with Patriot and THAAD air defence systems deployed, experts say defences cannot guarantee complete protection against mass drone and missile salvos.
Civilian casualties mount
Iranian state media said at least 201 people were killed and more than 700 injured in the initial strikes across 24 provinces. Among the dead were reportedly dozens of schoolgirls in Hormozgan province, though independent verification remains limited.In the Gulf, falling debris and drone strikes injured civilians in Kuwait and the UAE. A luxury hotel in Dubai caught fire following an explosion nearby. Regional governments condemned the attacks as violations of sovereignty, even as they confirmed intercepting incoming projectiles.
Trump’s call for regime change
Trump went beyond military objectives, openly urging Iranians to overthrow their government. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,” he said in a video address.He offered Iranian armed forces “complete immunity” if they laid down weapons, warning others would face “certain death”. The rhetoric signals that Washington sees strategic opportunity in Khamenei’s removal. Critics argue such language risks inflaming nationalist sentiment inside Iran and uniting factions that might otherwise compete for power.
Israel’s strategic calculus
Netanyahu described the strike as eliminating an “existential threat”. Israel said around 200 fighter jets dropped hundreds of munitions on roughly 500 targets, including missile launchers, IRGC command centres and air defences.Israeli officials also claimed senior Iranian defence figures were killed. The operation builds on last year’s 12-day conflict, which had already weakened Iran’s air defences. Israeli military leaders said planning had intensified after that confrontation, reflecting concerns over Iran’s advancing nuclear capabilities.
How we got here
The strike came days after a failed round of nuclear negotiations. Trump had warned that military action would follow if Iran refused stricter limits on uranium enrichment.Iran insists its programme is peaceful. However, US officials say intelligence indicated Tehran had developed advanced centrifuge capabilities. Previous US and Israeli attacks last year damaged nuclear infrastructure but did not fully dismantle it. Saturday’s operation appears aimed at preventing further progress while also reshaping Iran’s political leadership.
Global economic shockwaves
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil shipments pass, remains a flashpoint. Iranian forces reportedly warned vessels that no ships should transit the waterway.Airlines suspended flights across the Gulf, and several countries partially closed their airspace. Markets reacted nervously amid fears of prolonged disruption. Any sustained closure of Hormuz would send energy prices soaring and strain global supply chains.
What happens next?
Much depends on confirmation of Khamenei’s death and who consolidates power in Tehran. The IRGC, already dominant in security and economic affairs, could assume a more overt governing role.
