6 min readMar 28, 2026 06:27 AM IST
First published on: Mar 28, 2026 at 06:22 AM IST
On March 25, India announced its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) for the period 2030-2035, under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, adopted in 2015. These targets are significant against a bleak geopolitical landscape, buffeted by war, the retreat of multilateralism and the revival of fossil fuel-based economic activity among developed countries. During the Climate Change summit in 2015, the then French president, François Hollande, had said that the Paris Climate Agreement was as momentous and historic as the French Revolution. Since then, the revolution has turned into a full-scale retreat.
Let us be clear: India will have to tackle the twin challenges of climate change and energy security with its own limited resources. Even the meagre climate finance that has been available from developed countries since the Paris Agreement — less than the $100 billion a year that was promised — will be further squeezed under the impact of war, incipient inflation and competing demands of national security and relief from economic distress. India has done well to build on the early achievement of targets set in the previous NDCs for 2030, updated and enhanced in 2022, against the base year of 2005. For example, emissions intensity of GDP growth has now been set at 47 per cent reduction by 2035 against the previous target of 45 per cent and the actual figure of 36 per cent already achieved. This may seem a modest increase in ambition but one must consider the fact that as intensity reduces through efficiency measures, further reductions inevitably become harder to achieve. Despite this, it is likely that on current trends, the 47 per cent target will be surpassed.
On non-fossil fuel power installed capacity, the previous target of 50 per cent for 2030 has already been overtaken. The current figure is 52.5 per cent. The target of 60 per cent for 2035 is realistic, given a much more challenging energy outlook. One should acknowledge that capacity is not the same as generation, which is currently a little over 20 per cent for renewable energy. Our plans should include measures to raise generation significantly.
The third key target relates to expanding the carbon sink through afforestation. Against the previous target of adding 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030, the current achievement is estimated to be 2.296 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The target for 2035 has now been set at 3.5-4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, which appears realistic. The concern one has is that plantations are being included in this category. These have well-established and acutely adverse ecological consequences that one should be mindful of.
The press release on the NDCs has rightly emphasised the importance of adaptation. It is not often appreciated that even if carbon emissions became zero by some miracle tomorrow, climate change will continue to take place since the accumulated greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere will deplete only slowly over several decades. Therefore, adaptation to the consequences of climate change is imperative. Rising temperatures in a tropical country like India require measures to safeguard people working in open fields and exposed locations. The formulation and adoption of Heat Action Plans across the country is a timely initiative. We need to work together with our neighbours to monitor the melting of the Himalayan glaciers and impending glacial lake outburst floods which may cause huge damage downstream. Monitoring only our own stretch of the mountains is not enough. Similarly, we need to collaborate with our maritime neighbours to monitor the health of the seas around us, safeguard the mangrove forests to protect our coastal plains and conserve the depleting fish stocks and other marine life. Regional collaboration to address climate change and ecological challenge needs to be part of our planning.
Hydrogen is being billed as the energy source of the future. It is clean energy because the only waste from its use is water. Currently, hydrogen is a byproduct from petrochemical production, so its generation is carbon intensive. Hydrogen can be produced through electrolysis, but whether this process uses fossil energy or renewable energy will determine how “green” and clean hydrogen can be as a fuel. India’s green hydrogen mission holds great promise in meeting the twin challenge of climate change and energy security.
One should also underline the role that nuclear energy can play in providing clean power for India’s growing economy. The government has set an ambitious target of 100 GW of nuclear power by 2047, coinciding with the Viksit Bharat target, against the current installed capacity of only 8.8 GW. The Sustainable Harnessing and Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India (SHANTI) Act of 2025 opens this hitherto sensitive sector to the private sector. It permits up to 49 per cent FDI in nuclear power generation. It has also amended the liability clause in the existing legislation to bring it in line with international practice. The expectation is that this will allow a large increase in nuclear power capacity through the Small Modular Reactors (SMR) of 200-250 MW capacity which are currently under development and which may provide decentralised and distributed power.
The compelling reality is India’s energy poverty. Its annual per capita electricity consumption in India is 1,460 KWh as against a world average of 3,800 KWh. The challenge lies in significantly increasing this consumption but in as ecologically sustainable a manner as possible. The whole suite of policies being deployed by India is impressive and will have lessons for developing countries of the South. But the world needs to recognise that energy transition from fossil fuels to clean and renewable sources of energy requires resources that are limited in the absence of international support. The transition is also complicated by an unpredictable and constantly disrupted international situation. In these circumstances, India has a good story to tell on climate change. It is the climate evangelists of the West who have repeatedly retreated from their solemn commitments and tried to shift the burden of climate change action onto the developing world. It is they who must be put in the dock for the peril the world faces.
The writer is former foreign secretary and was chief negotiator on climatechange for India (2007-2010)
