The electoral battle set to unfold in West Bengal over the next month — the state goes to polls on April 23 and 29 in two phases — will see the Trinamool Congress (TMC) attempt to trump anti-incumbency once again and return to power for the fourth straight term, while the BJP attempts to register a statement win by unseating the Mamata Banerjee-led party from power. The election, however, has been overshadowed to a large extent by the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls and uncertainty over how many voters will end up exercising their franchise next month, as judicial officers rush to dispose of the claims of 60 lakh voters under adjudication.
Shadow of SIR
In a quite unprecedented situation, while parties are getting ready to begin their campaign and finalise their candidates’ list, the voters’ list is not final yet. Sixty lakh voters are still under adjudication and the Election Commission (EC) has time till the last date of filing nominations for each of the two phases to publish supplementary lists to add such voters to the rolls. However, the SIR has added a sense of uncertainty in the entire electoral process and it remains to be seen how many voters end up getting deleted from the rolls, from which constituencies, and what impact that has on the results, if any.
TMC’s challenge
The TMC appears confident on the back of how the party continued its fine form from the 2021 Assembly polls in the previous Lok Sabha polls. However, being in power for 15 years comes with its disadvantages and the party will look to check any anti-incumbency that may be building up in the grassroots. The extent to which the TMC considers it to be a problem will be apparent when the candidate lists are released. Many in TMC circles expect more fresh faces to be fielded this time around.
The TMC, whose biggest advantage is that it is led by a mass leader of the stature of Mamata Banerjee and has a superior organisational network, will hope that its mix of welfarism and identity politics — Bengali asmita, or pride, is one of its poll planks — helps trump the BJP’s Hindutva plus development template.
Can the BJP take the next step?
The BJP established itself as the primary Opposition force five years ago, but the challenge now is to find the next gear and become the party with the potential to come to power. But to do that, it has to find an answer for the TMC’s superior organisational network and combat the advantage that the Mamata Banerjee-led party enjoys at the booth level. To that end, having a short two-phase election — in 2021, it was eight phases — may work in the Opposition party’s favour as it likely won’t allow the TMC to press home the advantage that comes with having a more well-oiled party machinery.
The signals from the speeches at the BJP’s Parivartan Yatra rallies show that the party’s poll plank will be issues such as cross-border infiltration and the promise of delivering the benefits of Central schemes. The straight math for the BJP is that it needs to widen its voter base, hope the TMC’s support base that is held together by Muslims and women cracks, and it ends up getting more than the 37.97% it had secured five years ago. To achieve that, the BJP has to successfully counter the TMC’s narrative that paints it as a party comprising “outsiders” and whose political ideal is antithetical to Bengali cultural ethos
Identity politics
Identity politics, marked by caste-based mobilisations and religious assertions, have come to characterise Bengali politics and society since the last time a major rupture occurred in the state: the decline of the Left and the eventual rise of the TMC. As marginalised groups were left facing the political vacuum left by a rapidly receding left after the mid-2000s, caste-based groups such as Matuas began asserting themselves as an organised bloc to press their demands.
The Matuas are an important political bloc whose support powered the BJP to its best-ever electoral showing in a parliamentary election in the state when it won 18 of the state’s 42 seats in 2019. However, the TMC made up the lost ground among Matuas in 2021 amid widespread concern about a proposed National Register of Citizens. This time, the Matuas — who are said to influence the outcome in at least 35-40 Assembly constituencies in North and South 24 Parganas districts and Nadia district — have been left in the lurch amid the SIR, as most of them are refugees from Bangladesh and do not possess citizenship papers.
This time, the BJP leadership among the Matuas’ first family, the Thakurs, also appears fractured amid tensions between Union MoS for Shipping Shantanu Thakur and his brother and BJP MLA Subrata Thakur. Whether this works to the TMC’s advantage and which way the Matuas swing are undetermined as of yet and may prove to be crucial in the electoral battle.
The Mamata government’s decision to increase the monthly allowance of muezzins, Christian priests, and Hindu purohits shows how integral religious politics is now to institutional politics in Bengal.
The Muslim vote
The minority community has been a bedrock of the TMC’s success over the past decade and a half. Despite some murmurs of discontent among sections over changes in the OBC list and the government’s eventual acquiescence in the Waqf matter, they are expected to stand by Mamata Banerjee. However, one question that remains is whether smaller outfits such as the Aam Janata Unnayan Party of former TMC leader Humayun Kabir and the Indian Secular Front (ISF), which is linked to the influential Furfura Sharif shrine, can loosen the TMC’s grip on the Muslim vote somewhat.
