SoftBank's OpenAI wager in focus as analysts upgrade share price target

Technology investor SoftBank Group reports second quarter earnings results on Tuesday in the midst of feverish investment in artificial intelligence that has sent its share price soaring.

But SoftBank’s belief in AI comes with risks amid growing concern of an “AI bubble” that could see SoftBank overextended in companies at eye-watering valuations, repeating some of its debt-fuelled investment mistakes of the past.

For now, analysts have re-rated SoftBank’s share price target up as the wave of investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure such as data centers continues apace and the frontrunners in AI development, such as SoftBank investee OpenAI, project rapid growth.

In April, SoftBank said it would lead a funding round of up to $40 billion in OpenAI, developer of ChatGPT, at a valuation of $300 billion. In October, a source told Reuters SoftBank was among a consortium of investors acquiring $6.6 billion worth of shares from OpenAI employees at a yet higher valuation of $500 billion.

SoftBank’s shares closed at a record 27,315 yen per share in late October, more than quadruple their price in early April, although they have pared some gains since, closing at 22,255 yen per share on Monday.

The share price now appears to be priced in relation to SoftBank’s exposure to OpenAI, after years of tracking shares of Alibaba, Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal wrote in a note. SoftBank no longer has a meaningful stake in Alibaba.

While retail investors view SoftBank as a higher risk and volatility play on artificial intelligence and OpenAI, institutional investors “recognise the momentum but remain cautious about extrapolating OpenAI’s potential,” Goyal wrote.

SoftBank founder and Chief Executive Masayoshi Son said in June that he was “all in” on OpenAI in a bid to become the biggest platform provider for “artificial super intelligence” within the next 10 years.

But whether OpenAI and other artificial intelligence firms can generate the profits worthy of such valuations remains to be seen. Losses are mounting at OpenAI, sources told Reuters in October.

Separately, in September a source told Reuters that SoftBank’s plans to set up a joint venture with OpenAI to bring artificial intelligence services to corporate customers in Japan were significantly behind schedule.

The joint venture eventually launched last week.

Son has form in both making and losing fortunes.

He rode the boom and bust of the dotcom bubble in 2000, while SoftBank’s Vision Fund investment vehicles, launched in 2017 and 2019 and totalling over $170 billion in committed capital, have barely broken even since inception.

SoftBank is expected to post a net profit of 207 billion yen ($1.37 billion) in the July-September quarter, according to the average estimate of three analysts polled by LSEG, although its earnings are known for large and hard-to-predict swings.