MUMBAI: For years, they’ve wanted it, now they have it. BJP is finally set to assume control of India’s richest civic body, and get its own mayor of Mumbai. After almost three decades at the BMC’s helm, the Thackerays have lost control of their last bastion to the Mahayuti alliance led by former ally-turned-foe BJP and erstwhile loyalist Eknath Shinde, who split the Shiv Sena three-and-a-half years ago.
On Friday, Mahayuti crossed the half-way mark of 114 in the 227-member House, but not by much. BJP won 89 seats and Shinde’s Shiv Sena 29 to gain a narrow lead in the BMC House which presides over India’s richest civic body. In effect, BJP will need Shinde Sena’s backing for big decisions.The Uddhav-Raj Thackeray combine won 71 seats (Uddhav’s Sena winning 65 and Raj Thackeray’s MNS taking 6), retaining a large chunk of wards in the city’s Marathi heartland. But the same combination did not work in neighbouring urban centres, including Thane and Navi Mumbai.Also read: Decoding BMC elections: What worked against ThackeraysCongress, which did not tie up with its MVA allies, Sena (UBT) & Sharad Pawar’s NCP, managed 24, lower than its tally of 31 in 2017. Asaduddin Owaisi’s MIM, on the other hand, made impressive gains, improving its count from 2 to 8 seats, defeating Samajwadi Party in wards where minorities had a sizeable vote.BJP secured 21.6% vote share followed by Sena (UBT) at 13.2%. Sena polled 5% and Congress 4.4%.Overall, voters seem to have responded to the appeal of a ‘triple-engine sarkar’- with BJP in office at the Centre, state and city – and its ability to deliver results without hurdles. Also, BJP’s Hindutva-and-Vikas plank clearly had wider traction with the public than the Thackeray combine’s focus on Marathi identity and pride (Asmita).BJP MLA and speaker Rahul Narwekar said the mayor will be from BJP. Reacting to this, Shinde said, “More than power and post of mayor, we are interested in making a difference in the lives of Mumbaikars.”
Despite the BJP juggernaut in the BMC election, the Thackerays retained a creditable hold on their core Marathi vote and outperformed Shinde’s Sena, winning more than twice the number of seats. The traditional Marathi strongholds of Central Mumbai (Dadar, Lalbaug, Parel, Sewri and Worli) stayed with the Thackeray cousins. In Worli for instance, Shinde’s Samadhan Sarvankar lost to SS-UBT’s Nishikant Shinde.BJP, despite its impressive showing, still needed its ally in order to cross the half-way mark of 114. Shinde, who is known to drive a hard bargain, could well demand key posts like chairperson of the standing committee, which makes key financial decisions for the civic body.The impact of the verdict will go beyond this election. With a national party’s writ running across all three tiers of government, it will become more difficult for regional parties to stay relevant and challenge the BJP’s increasing dominance.
The results could see political realignments: Raj and Uddhav may stay together beyond this election. Shinde has emerged as the stronger ally for the BJP, raising questions about Ajit Pawar’s long-term utility. Even after tying up with his uncle Sharad Pawar, he lost to BJP in his bastions, Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad.While SS-UBT managed to hold on to its traditional strongholds in Mumbai, analysts note that it has lost its grip in the wider MMR region. Many feel the Thackeray combine would have done even better in Mumbai if the Congress party had joined the alliance.“The SS-UBT gained from its alliance with MNS with the consolidation of Marathi votes. Raj Thackeray’s emotional appeal that this was the last election for the Marathi Manoos was effective,” said political analyst Abhay Deshpande.“But the alliance cost the SS-UBT a section of Muslim and north Indian votes since Raj targeted both communities,” he added, noting that the MNS did not gain many seats. The BJP, on the other hand, appealed to a broader coalition of communities: north and south Indians, Gujaratis, Marwaris, Marathi middle class.Congress leaders said the results validated their decision to stay out of the Thackeray alliance. “Our results have been good especially since ten corporators had switched to the Mahayuti alliance,” said Congress MLA Amin Patel. “It is good that we did not ally with the Thackeray combine. It would have cost us north Indian and Muslim votes.”But the increase in the MIM’s tally from two seats to eight indicates it took away minority votes from Congress and SS-UBT as well as the Samajwadi Party, which went down from 6 to 2 seats. MIM chief Owaisi’s controversial statement during the campaign that a burkha-clad woman could become the Prime Minister or mayor may have played a role in swinging minority votes in its favour.
