Torrential downpour is expected to sweep the region during the festive weekend with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) sounding fresh orange alerts for Mumbai and the neighbouring districts of Thane and Raigad until Sunday. According to weather forecasters, heavy to very heavy rainfall is set to batter the city between Saturday and Sunday even as the city has already surpassed its monthly average quota for September.
Over the past two weeks, Mumbai has been experiencing intermittent spells of showers coupled with thunderstorms and gusty winds. On Wednesday, the city continued to witness overcast skies even as it got some respite from heavy showers.
Data from the weather bureau showed that between Tuesday and Wednesday morning, the suburban station in Santacruz received mere 2.7mm rainfall.
However, according to the weather bureau, rain is set to gather pace from Friday as the city has been placed under a yellow alert, with very heavy rainfall on cards, starting Saturday. Between Saturday and Sunday, Mumbai, Thane and the districts of Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg have been placed under an orange alert owing to the possibility of very heavy rainfall in isolated pockets.
Weather observers have attributed the intensifying rainfall to a fresh depression which is slated to develop over the Bay of Bengal by September 27.
Athreya Shetty, an independent weather forecaster told The Indian Express, “A fresh depression off the Andhra coast is expected to develop over the next 24 – 48 hours. Meanwhile, the remnants of the Typhoon Ragasa is also expected to merge with this depression in the Bay of Bengal, which will form by September 27. After that, the system will cut across Maharashtra and move into the region, bringing in heavy rain.”
In what is expected to give further intensity to the downpour, Shetty added that the system is likely to induce a vortex upon reaching Madhya Maharashtra.
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“This vortex is expected to form over north Konkan, which may usher in heavy downpour akin to the activity recorded between August 18 – August 19, by Sunday night and Monday morning,” said Shetty.
Such heavy rainfall forecast is atypical for the final week of September, when the city normally experiences intermittent spells of rain with thunderstorms as the region braces itself for the withdrawal of monsoon. The official date of monsoon withdrawal in Mumbai is October 8.
Some observers have alluded that in light of active surge in monsoon systems late into September, the withdrawal of monsoon can be deferred till mid-October. It must be noted that this year, the city also experienced a historic early onset of monsoon on May 26, making it the earliest since 1950.
The forecast for heavy spells also comes at a time when the city has already logged in excess rainfall for the month of September. While the average rainfall in September hovers around 380mm rain, the city has already clocked in 429mm so far this month. Cumulatively, the IMD’s Santacruz station has 2923mm rain so far since June while the Colaba station registered 1960mm rain.
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