Exit polls for the Bihar assembly elections have handed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a decisive edge, while most survey agencies foresee only a marginal debut for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party. Though Kishor has billed his outfit as the “alternative” Bihar has been waiting for, the numbers released on Tuesday suggest the party may struggle to register even a symbolic breakthrough in the 243-seat assembly.Several pollsters, including Dainik Bhaskar, Matrize, People’s Insight, People’s Pulse and PMARQ agreed broadly on one trend: a strong NDA lead, a distant Mahagathbandhan (MGB), and little space for Jan Suraaj.
Bihar exit polls: Pollsters give big majority for NDA – follow live updates
Clean sweep forecasts for NDA
Matrize predicted a near clean sweep for the NDA, with 147–167 seats, placing the MGB at 70–90 and Jan Suraaj between 0–2. People’s Pulse offered a similar reading, giving the NDA 133–159 seats and the MGB 75–101, while forecasting 0–5 for Jan Suraaj.People’s Insight projected NDA 133–148, MGB 87–102 and Jan Suraaj 0–2, with others between 3–6.According to PMARQ, the NDA could finish with 142–162, the MGB at 80–98 and Jan Suraaj between 1 and 7 seats.Dainik Bhaskar also signalled a clear advantage to the ruling alliance, placing the NDA at 145–160, the MGB at 73–91 and Jan Suraaj between 0–3. Its detailed breakdown suggested BJP might win 72–82 seats, JD(U) 59–68, and LJP (Ram Vilas) and HAM between 4–5 each. On the opposition side, RJD was projected at 51–63, Congress 12–15 and CPI(ML) 6–9.Another survey, by DVC Research, predicted NDA 137–152, MGB 83–98, Jan Suraaj 2–4, and others 4–8.Prashant Kishor, who has toured the state for over a year, earlier claimed that higher turnout reflected public yearning for an alternative and that voters “found it in Jan Suraaj”. But exit polls tell another story: while the new party contested all 243 seats alone, most agencies believe it may end with a tally ranging from zero to a handful.
Highest turnout in Bihar’s history
Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout in the second and final phase at 67.14% provisionally, likely to rise as queues were still seen at booths. Kishanganj (76.26%), Katihar (75.23%), Purnea (73.79%) and Supaul (70.69%) were among districts with the highest polling. Nawada recorded the lowest at 57.31%.Polling was conducted across 122 constituencies where votes for 1,302 candidates were sealed. Although Nitish Kumar is not contesting, the NDA has campaigned around his governance record, while the opposition INDIA bloc is banking on anti-incumbency and minority consolidation in Seemanchal.Disclaimer: Opinion polls are not always accurate. Actual results will be announced on November 14.
