It has been about two weeks since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the Gaza ceasefire, which is struggling to reach the next phase that will involve even more serious challenges.
Last Sunday, the ceasefire came under severe strain with the IDF’s (Israel Defence Forces) air strikes across Gaza in response to the killing of two IDF personnel by militants in Rafah, the border town between Gaza and Egypt. Two far-right Israeli ministers demanded a response using the military’s “full force” and the complete destruction of Hamas, which denied any involvement and reaffirmed its “full commitment” to the ceasefire.
The US swiftly intervened, compelling Israel to immediately reinstate the ceasefire and allow the movement of humanitarian aid. This decisive action was taken to preserve the fragile truce, based on the assessment that the attack may not have been carried out by the central Hamas leadership.
One week ago, an announcement by the Palestinian embassy in Cairo — that the Rafah border crossing, Gaza’s only gateway to the outside world, would reopen on October 20 — was quickly contradicted by the Israeli Prime Minister’s office. Israel’s statement clarified that the crossing would remain closed “until further notice”, linking its potential reopening to the return of the mortal remains of deceased hostages. Israel has been against Rafah’s reopening as it will not be under its direct supervision.
With growing concern in Washington that Netanyahu could derail the ceasefire and restart the war, special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner arrived in Israel this week, followed by Vice President J D Vance, to ensure that Netanyahu stayed the course.
Vance, in his public remarks, was very optimistic on seeing the ceasefire through, advising Israel to be patient about getting the dead bodies back. However, he did not hide his displeasure with the approval of a preliminary vote by the Israeli parliament on two bills for the annexation of the occupied West Bank, a move that has dismayed Gulf states. He called the vote a “very stupid political stunt” and a personal “insult”. Trump reinforced Vance’s message, declaring, “Israel is not going to do anything with the West Bank.”
During his visit, Vance, along with Witkoff and Kushner, launched the CMCC (Civil-Military Coordination Centre) under the US Central Command. Located in southern Israel near Gaza, the Centre will be the main interface for monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, and for facilitating humanitarian, logistical, and security assistance. Commanded by US General Patrick Frank, it has 200 US service personnel. The UK, Canada, Germany, Norway, Denmark and Jordan have already joined. Egypt, as well as other partner countries, NGOs, international institutions, and the private sector, are also expected to join the CMCC soon.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Tel Aviv to meet with Netanyahu immediately following Vance’s departure on Thursday. These consecutive, high-level US visits underscore a diplomatic push not just to maintain the current ceasefire but also to address the more challenging issues of the next phase of the peace process.
Hamas is not willing to give up arms unless it gets a security guarantee, but Israel’s position is that the war does not end until Hamas disarms. Hamas’s reassertion in Gaza has become a cause for immediate action on the constitution of the ISF (International Stabilisation Force), expected to be led by Egypt. France and the UK, with the US, are currently drafting a resolution for approval by the UN Security Council.
The finalisation of the resolution is taking some time: Russia and China are not yet on board, although they are not expected to oppose a resolution supported by the Arab countries. In parallel, Egypt is leading the efforts to finalise the composition of the future Palestinian technocratic government in Gaza.
While the main actors are grappling over the composition of the ISF and the technocratic government, there are other challenges to be overcome besides disarming Hamas. The slow pace of the flow of aid, sporadic Israeli attacks on Gaza, the delay in the reopening of the Rafah crossing, and the extent of the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) involvement, which is opposed by Netanyahu, pose serious impediments.
The fundamental difference between the current ceasefire and the earlier ones is Trump’s personal involvement. The dispatch of his high-powered team to Israel to keep the plan going and the establishment of the CMCC are clear demonstrations of his commitment. He also has his eye on expanding the Abraham Accords.
While equal pressure will be applied on Hamas by the other three guarantors of the Trump plan (Qatar, Egypt and Turkey), it is ironic that Netanyahu’s woes began soon after he was forced to accept the ceasefire. Israel’s top court has already begun his corruption trial, and he may soon be forced to set up a commission of inquiry that may very well indict him — something he has been avoiding, citing the ongoing war in Gaza. He is under tremendous pressure from his right-wing coalition partners, who keep threatening to quit the government. With a dip in his popularity, his coalition is likely to lose an election if one is held soon. Any meaningful concession by Netanyahu on the next phase would likely lead to the collapse of his government. To makematters worse, he has been bombarded
by a stream of visitors from the US, almost taking away his power to make decisions on Gaza.
The US is steadfast about making progress and shaping the region to serve its long-term security, political and economic interests. It has permanent military bases that span the entire Gulf region. Both Kushner and the Trump Organisation have extensive business interests in the region. In fact, Kushner is reported to be keen on commencing reconstruction in the part of Gaza that is presently under IDF control. While Washington is pushing the ceasefire envelope, Netanyahu is being cornered by his right-wing allies on the one side and the Americans on the other.
The writer is former ambassador of India to Egypt and former permanent representative of India to the Arab League
